The Long-Term Prediction of Landslide Processes within the Precarpathian Depression of the Cernivtsi Region of Ukraine

Abstract

The purpose of this publication is the long-term forecasting of the landslide processes activation for the territory of the Precarpathian depression within the Chernivtsi region, taking into account the complex effect of natural factors. Methodology. Based on statistical analysis and processing of long-term observations of landslide activation and natural time factors in particular solar activity, seismicity, groundwater levels, precipitation and air temperature, the relationship was analysed, the main periods of landslide activation were determined, the contribution of each time factor to the complex probability indicator of landslide development was estimated and long-term forecasting was carried out. Results. An analysis of the influence of geomorphology on the landslide development was performed by using GIS MapІnfo. By means of cross-correlation, Fourier spectral analysis, the periodicities were analysed and the relationships between the parameters were established. It was found that the energy of earthquakes precedes the activation of landslides by 1 year, which indicates the "preparatory" effect of earthquakes as a factor that reduces the stability of rocks. The main periodicities of the forecast parameters of 9-11, 19-21, 28-31 years are highlighted, which are consistent with the rhythms of solar activity. The forecasting was carried out using artificial neural networks and the prediction function of the Mathematical package Mathcad, based on the received data, the activation of landslides is expected in 2023-2026, 2030-2035, 2040-2044 with some short periods of calm. Scientific novelty. The main periods of the dynamics of the time series of landslides and natural factors for the territory of the Precarpathian depression within the Chernivtsi region were determined, and a long-term forecast of landslides was made. Taking into account the large areas of the spread of landslide processes, forecasting the likely activation is an important issue for this region, the constructed predictive time models make it possible to assess the danger of the geological environment for the purpose of early warning and making management decisions aimed at reducing the consequences of a natural disaster.

Keywords

• factors
• time series
• forecast
• landslides
• statistical methods
• engineering-geological areas