Estimation of 24 h continuous cloud cover using a ground-based imager with a convolutional neural network

Abstract

In this study, we aimed to estimate cloud cover with high accuracy using images from a camera-based imager and a convolutional neural network (CNN) as a potential alternative to human-eye observation on the ground. Image data collected at 1 h intervals from 2019 to 2020 at a staffed weather station, where human-eye observations were performed, were used as input data. The 2019 dataset was used for training and validating the CNN model, whereas the 2020 dataset was used for testing the estimated cloud cover. Additionally, we compared satellite (SAT) and ceilometer (CEI) cloud cover to determine the method most suitable for cloud cover estimation at the ground level. The CNN model was optimized using a deep layer and detailed hyperparameter settings. Consequently, the model achieved an accuracy, bias, root mean square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (R) of 0.92, −0.13, 1.40 tenths, and 0.95, respectively, on the test dataset, and exhibited approximately 93 % high agreement at a difference within ±2 tenths of the observed cloud cover. This result demonstrates an improvement over previous studies that used threshold, machine learning, and deep learning methods. In addition, compared with the SAT (with an accuracy, bias, RMSE, R, and agreement of 0.89, 0.33 tenths, 2.31 tenths, 0.87, and 83 %, respectively) and CEI (with an accuracy, bias, RMSE, R, agreement of 0.86, −1.58 tenths, 3.34 tenths, 0.76, and 74 %, respectively), the camera-based imager with the CNN was found to be the most suitable method to replace ground cloud cover observation by humans.