Forewarning Model of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Combination Weights and Entropy Principles

Abstract

As a new development form for evaluating the regional water resources carrying capacity, forewarning regional water resources of their carrying capacities is an important adjustment and control measure for regional water security management. Up to now, most research on this issue have been qualitative analyses, with a lack of quantitative research. For this reason, an index system for forewarning regional water resources of their carrying capacities and grade standards, has been established in Anhui Province, China, in this paper. Subjective weights of forewarning indices can be calculated using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, based on an accelerating genetic algorithm, while objective weights of forewarning indices can be calculated by using a projection pursuit method, based on an accelerating genetic algorithm. These two kinds of weights can be combined into combination weights of forewarning indices, by using the minimum relative information entropy principle. Furthermore, a forewarning model of regional water resources carrying capacity, based on entropy combination weight, is put forward. The model can fully integrate subjective and objective information in the process of forewarning. The results show that the calculation results of the model are reasonable and the method has high adaptability. Therefore, this model is worth studying and popularizing.

Keywords

• water resource carrying capacity
• forewarning model
• entropy of information
• fuzzy analytic hierarchy process
• projection pursuit
• accelerating genetic algorithm