Climate change in Tigray, Ethiopia: Assessing impacts on smallholders’ risk perception and food security

Abstract

Amidst the ongoing global climate change crisis, characterized by unpredictable weather patterns and increasing environmental shocks, farming communities are among the most vulnerable. This vulnerability is particularly evident in Tigray, Ethiopia. This study, which investigates the incidence of climate change and its variability in relation to risk perception and food security of farming communities in Tigray, has significant implications for future action. It uses climate and the Living Standards Measurement Study panel data. A multi-method analytical procedure is employed to assess changes in temperature and rainfall, understand farmers’ climate change risk perception, and signify the welfare effects of droughts on farmers. The study finds significant warming trends, particularly increasing warming nights, and variable but increasing rainfall trends. Farmers do perceive climate change as a reality (85.53%) and a threat to their welfare (23%). Cooperation, diversification, irrigation, wealth, drought, and access to services were identified as drivers of this risk perception. Similarly, the study found drought is a significant driver of food insecurity. Other variables associated with food security status substantially are wealth, head marital status, and non-farm participation. It concludes that climate change is a reality and a perceived risk in Tigray. It poses a threat to the lives and livelihoods of its farming communities. It is recommended that farm households’ adaptive capacity be enhanced through improved livelihood options, promotion of cooperation, development of irrigation schemes, and increased access to weather and climate information.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Food security
• Risk perception
• Smallholder
• Trend analysis
• Tigray