Plausible response of urban encroachment on ecological land to tourism growth and implications for sustainable management, a case study of Zhangjiajie, China

Abstract

Rapid urban expansion in emerging tourism-oriented cities often leads to substantial encroachment on ecological lands and tremendous environmental pressure. Tourism growth and urban encroachment control are indispensable for sustainable development, but their interaction has rarely been reported. Here, 23-years' built-up areas time series with corresponding indicators of Proportion of Land used for Tourism (PLT) are integrated, to explore this interaction and construct Urban Encroachment Probability Curve (UEPC), and to reveals their causation and cycle by Granger analysis. The results show that the probability of encroachment in the next year increases rapidly with the increase of PLT at the urban boundary. When the PLT is between 30 and 35, the probability of encroachment reaches 80%. However, the right shift of UEPC from 1995 to 2018 shows that urban encroachment has become increasingly difficult. An urban encroachment cycle (spatial planning – urban encroachment - tourism growth - population increase - land demand increase - spatial planning) takes at least four years. The monitoring of PLT on the boundary and PLT outside the built-up area has a great role in predicting the place and size of future encroachment. This objective prediction is the reliable basis for sustainable development.

Keywords

• Ecological land
• Tourism growth
• Urban encroachment probability curve
• Spatial interaction
• Sustainable development