Predictors of mayoral reelection in Romanian local elections. Long-term analysis 1996–2016

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the mayoral reelection rates in Romanian local elections between 1996 and 2016, a period marked by significant economic and political transitions. Given the post-communist context, understanding these dynamics is crucial for grasping Romania's evolving electoral behavior. In order to evaluate the dynamics of mayoral reelection rates in post-communist Romania, the primary research objective of the study consists in the assessment of the correlation between electoral participation and preferences for the incumbent mayors. In addition to this research objective, the paper aims to evaluate the impact of the ideological polarization in shaping electoral decision. An important research objective highlights the association between electorate's education level and political preferences for the incumbent political parties. Besides these objectives, the paper stresses the importance of the economic factors for predicting the dynamics of Romanian’ mayoral reelection rates. Using a quantitative research design based on nonlinear statistical regressions, the study highlights the importance of both ideological and economic vote in mayoral reelection. Moreover, statistical results indicate that both the interactions between left-right ideological polarization, secondary education and economic efficiency are significant predictors for explaining Romania's electoral behavior over time. The novelty of the study lies in the use of these interactions between ideology, education and economy for providing a deeper perspective on the mayoral reelection dynamics. These empirical findings are relevant not only for scholars but also for political decision-makers or electoral strategists, providing evidence related with electoral behavior in Romanian local elections.

Keywords

• Mayoral reelection
• local elections
• economic efficiency
• ideological polarization
• voter turnout
• Net income