Dynamic evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Shandong Province based on the comprehensive weight and TOPSIS model

Abstract

[Objective] The GDP of Shandong Province ranks among the top in China, and the province has an important strategic position in the regional development of China. However, water shortage has been restricting the rapid socioeconomic development in Shandong Province. The research on water resources carrying capacity (WRCC), as an important indicator of rigid constraint of water resources, is crucial for regional sustainable development. [Methods] This study quantitatively evaluated the WRCC of 16 cities in Shandong Province during 2011-2020 and explored its distribution in different hydrological years, using the comprehensive weighting method and TOPSIS model. Then, the obstacle degree model was applied to diagnose the main obstacle factors of WRCC. [Results] This research found that: (1) Water resources carrying capacity was the highest (0.68) for the wet year (2020) but lowest (0.19) for the dry year (2014), which was overall weak (0.39) in Shandong Province. From 2011 to 2020, WRCC decreased first and then increased, which changed with the water resources endowment. (2) Spatially, WRCC showed an obvious regional difference. Annual average WRCC over the whole province was overall low, with the the highest in Jinan City (0.51) and the lowest in Weihai City (0.24). In the wet year, WRCC of most cities were relatively high, but the lowest was found in Yantai City (0.30) and WRCC was also low in northwest Shandong Province. In the normal year, WRCC overall decreased from the southwest to the northeast of the province. In the dry year, WRCC for all cities was low and thus showed insignificant difference. (3) Total amount of water resources, water production modulus, ecological water use ratio, surface water resources proportion, and wastewater discharge were the main obstacle factors of WRCC. Accordingly, water resources and ecological environment were the main obstacles to WRCC improvement. [Conclusion] Due to the water scarcity and low WRCC, at present and in the future, expanding water sources and reducing expenditure as well as improving quality and increasing efficiency will be crucial for the ecological priority protection and high-quality socioeconomic development in Shandong Province.

Keywords

• water resources carrying capacity|comprehensive weight|topsis model|obstacle degree model|shandong province