Limiting conditions prediction using machine learning for loss of condenser vacuum event

Abstract

We implement machine learning regression models to predict peak pressures of primary and secondary systems, a major safety concern in Loss Of Condenser Vacuum (LOCV) accident. We selected the Multi-dimensional Analysis of Reactor Safety-KINS standard (MARS-KS) code to analyze the LOCV accident, and the reference plant is the Korean Optimized Power Reactor 1000MWe (OPR1000). eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) is selected as a machine learning tool. The MARS-KS code is used to generate LOCV accident data and the data is applied to train the machine learning model. Hyperparameter optimization is performed using a simulated annealing. The randomly generated combination of initial conditions within the operating range is put into the input of the XGBoost model to predict the peak pressure. These initial conditions that cause peak pressure with MARS-KS generate the results. After such a process, the error between the predicted value and the code output is calculated. Uncertainty about the machine learning model is also calculated to verify the model accuracy. The machine learning model presented in this paper successfully identifies a combination of initial conditions that produce a more conservative peak pressure than the values calculated with existing methodologies.

Keywords

• Machine learning
• Safety analysis
• MARS-KS
• XGBoost
• LOCV