Projected climate change under different scenarios in central region of Punjab, India

Abstract

The regional climate model viz. PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) model was used to downscale the future climatic data for the central region of Punjab, India.The projected data for the 21st century under different scenarios was corrected by using the climate data recorded for the 1971-1990 at meteorological station of Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana (Central Region of Punjab) and baseline data derived from PRECIS model. The corrected data was then analyzed on annual, seasonal and monthly basis to quantify the changes in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall. The projected data showed increase inmaximum and minimum temperature where as an irregular trend in rainfall was observed.It was projected that maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall would increase linearly under the A1B scenario for the mid century. At the end of the century, the rise in maximum and minimum temperature in B2 scenario will continue but at slower rate than the A1B and A2 scenarios. There would be deficit of rainfall by 78 and 30 % during the winter season under the A2 and B2 scenarios of the end century.

Keywords

• Climate change
• PRECIS model
• A1B scenario
• A2 scenario
• B2 scenario