System Dynamics Tools to Study Mediterranean Rangeland’s Sustainability

Abstract

Rangelands are a key resource present all over the world and cover half of all emerged lands. They are even more important in drylands, where they cover 48% of the total area. Their intensification and the additional pressure added by climate change push these socio-ecological systems towards desertification. Over the last two decades, we have developed and applied System Dynamics (SD) models for the study of Mediterranean grasslands. In addition, we have designed procedures and analysis tools, such as global sensitivity analysis, stability analysis condition, or risk analysis, to detect the main drivers of these socio-ecological systems and provide indicators about their long-term sustainability. This paper reviews these works, their scientific background, and the most relevant conclusions, including purely technical and rangeland-related ones, as well as our experience as systemic modelers in a world driven by field specialists.

Keywords

• drylands
• Mediterranean
• early warning systems
• sensitivity analysis
• desertification