Growth and instability analysis of major crops in Nepal

Abstract

Agriculture production growth is dependent on various factors as policies, inputs, and the environment. It is imperative to compute growth rate for the formulation of plans, policies and strategies to boost production performance. This study examined the compound growth rate and instability index of major crops in Nepal. The time-series data of 29 years from 1990/91 to 2018/19 was analysed by dividing the total time period into three sub-periods of three decades. The instability of most of the crops' area, production, and productivity declined during the second sub-period and increased in the third sub period. The growth rate of the area, production, and productivity of the crops declined during the second sub-period except for maize, potato, and vegetables. During the third sub-period, only sugarcane, oilseeds, and maize area growth rate risen whereas the growth rate of production increased for sugarcane, oilseed, lentil, and rice. For the better production performance of crops, crop-specific strategies regarding area expansion and technological intervention should be promulgated.

Keywords

• Compound growth rate
• Instability index
• Production performance
• Time-series data
• Major crops