Biology-Informed Recurrent Neural Network for Pandemic Prediction Using Multimodal Data

Abstract

In the biomedical field, the time interval from infection to medical diagnosis is a random variable that obeys the log-normal distribution in general. Inspired by this biological law, we propose a novel back-projection infected–susceptible–infected-based long short-term memory (BPISI-LSTM) neural network for pandemic prediction. The multimodal data, including disease-related data and migration information, are used to model the impact of social contact on disease transmission. The proposed model not only predicts the number of confirmed cases, but also estimates the number of infected cases. We evaluate the proposed model on the COVID-19 datasets from India, Austria, and Indonesia. In terms of predicting the number of confirmed cases, our model outperforms the latest epidemiological modeling methods, such as vSIR, and intelligent algorithms, such as LSTM, for both short-term and long-term predictions, which shows the superiority of bio-inspired intelligent algorithms. In general, the use of mobility information improves the prediction accuracy of the model. Moreover, the number of infected cases in these three countries is also estimated, which is an unobservable but crucial indicator for the control of the pandemic.

Keywords

• bio-inspired
• back-projection
• neural network
• LSTM
• deep learning
• COVID-19