Analysis and simulation of a stochastic COVID-19 model with large-scale nucleic acid detection and isolation measures: A case study of the outbreak in Urumqi, China in August 2022

Abstract

In this paper, a stochastic COVID-19 model with large-scale nucleic acid detection and isolation measures is proposed. Firstly, the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution is obtained. Secondly, threshold criteria for the stochastic extinction and persistence in the mean with probability one are established. Moreover, a sufficient condition for the existence of unique ergodic stationary distribution for any positive solution is also established. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out in combination with real COVID-19 data from Urumqi, China and the theoretical results are verified.

Keywords

• Stochastic COVID-19 model
• Extinction persistence in the mean
• Stationary distribution
• Numerical simulation