Short‐term power prediction of distributed PV based on multi‐scale feature fusion with TPE‐CBiGRU‐SCA

Abstract

Abstract To address the challenge of insufficient comprehensive extraction and fusion of meteorological conditions, temporal features, and power periodic features in short‐term power prediction for distributed photovoltaic (PV) farms, a TPE‐CBiGRU‐SCA model based on multiscale feature fusion is proposed. First, multiscale feature fusion of meteorological features, temporal features, and hidden periodic features is performed in PV power to construct the model input features. Second, the relationships between PV power and its influencing factors are modelled from spatial and temporal scales using CNN and Bi‐GRU, respectively. The spatiotemporal features are then weighted and fused using the SCA attention mechanism. Finally, TPE‐based hyperparameter optimization is used to refine network parameters, achieving PV power prediction for a single field station. Validation with data from a PV field station shows that this method significantly enhances feature extraction comprehensiveness through multiscale fusion at both data and model layers. This improvement leads to a reduction in MAE and RMSE by 26.03% and 38.15%, respectively, and an increase in R2 to 96.22%, representing a 3.26% improvement over other models.

Keywords

• data analysis
• data mining
• forecasting theory
• load forecasting
• power generation planning
• prediction theory