Driving effect of multiplex factors on human brucellosis in high incidence region, implication for brucellosis based on one health concept
Ruihao Peng,
Ying Wang,
Jingbo Zhai,
Jinsong Zhang,
Yuying Lu,
Huaimin Yi,
Haozhen Yan,
Yuanli Peng,
Tumenjargal Sharav,
Zeliang Chen
Affiliations
Ruihao Peng
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510275, PR China
Ying Wang
Plague and Brucellosis Prevention and Control Base, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baicheng 137000, PR China
Jingbo Zhai
Innovative Institute of Zoonoses, Inner Mongolia Minzu University, Tongliao 028000, PR China
Jinsong Zhang
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510275, PR China
Yuying Lu
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510275, PR China
Huaimin Yi
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510275, PR China
Haozhen Yan
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510275, PR China
Yuanli Peng
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510275, PR China
Tumenjargal Sharav
Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health, School of Veterinary Medicine, Mongolian University of Life Science, Khan-Uul district, Zaisan, 17042 Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Zeliang Chen
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510275, PR China; Innovative Institute of Zoonoses, Inner Mongolia Minzu University, Tongliao 028000, PR China; Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases, Ministry of Education, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, Liaoning Province 110866, PR China; Corresponding author at: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province 510275, PR China.
Brucellosis is a typical zoonosis driven by various risk factors, including environmental ones. The present study aimed to explore the driving effect of environmental factors on human brucellosis in a high incidence rate area, which provides understanding and implications in mitigating disease transmission risk in a multi-system between the human-animal-environment interface for preventing and controlling brucellosis based on the One Health concept. Based on the monthly time series data of human brucellosis and environmental variables, a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with explanatory variables (SARIMAX) was applied to assess the association between environmental indicators and human brucellosis incidence (IHB). The results indicated distinct seasonal fluctuation during the study duration, tending to climb from April to August. Atmospheric pressure, precipitation, relative humidity, mean temperature, sunshine duration, and normalized difference vegetation index significantly drive IHB. Moreover, the well-fitting and predicting capability were performed and assessed in the optimal model was the SARIMAX (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 model with the normalized difference vegetation index (β = 0.349, P = 0.036) and mean temperature (β = 0.133, P = 0.046) lagged in 6 months, and the precipitation lagged in 1 month (β = −0.090, P = 0.004). Our study suggests the association between environmental risk factors and human brucellosis infection, which can be contributed to mitigating the transmission risk in the environmental drivers in a multi-system interface through comprehensive prevention and intervention strategies based on the One Health concept.
