Testing the Accuracy of Altman, Springate, and Zmijewski Models in the Context of Indonesian Banking

Abstract

This research aims to identify the most accurate model for predicting bankruptcy in the banking industry in Indonesia. The three models used in this study are the Altman X-Score, Springate S-Score, and Zmijewski Z-Score models. The population used consists of all banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The data used are secondary data in the form of financial reports from 2012 to 2022. The methodology employed includes hypothesis testing using tests for normality, homogeneity, and one-way ANOVA. The research findings indicate that the Z-Score model is the most suitable and accurate model for predicting bankruptcy, with an accuracy rate of 85.53%. The S-Score model achieved an accuracy rate of 14.47%, while the X-Score model did not provide significant accuracy. The implications of the findings are that if the Z-Score model can be used to evaluate the financial health of banks and provide concrete preventive actions before bankruptcy occurs.

Keywords

• bankruptcy
• altman x-score
• springate s-score
• and zmijewski z-score models