Scale-Dependent Verification of the OU MAP Convection Allowing Ensemble Initialized with Multi-Scale and Large-Scale Perturbations during the 2019 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Abstract

Given the large range of resolvable space and time scales in large-domain convection-allowing for ensemble forecasts, there is a need to better understand optimal initial-condition perturbation strategies to sample the forecast uncertainty across these space and time scales. This study investigates two initial-condition perturbation strategies for CONUS-domain ensemble forecasts that extend into the two-day forecast lead time using traditional and object-based verification methods. Initial conditions are perturbed either by downscaling perturbations from a coarser resolution ensemble (i.e., LARGE) or by adopting the analysis perturbations from a convective-scale, EnKF system (i.e., MULTI). It was found that MULTI had more ensemble spread than LARGE across all scales initially, while LARGE’s perturbation energy surpassed that of MULTI after 3 h and continued to maintain a surplus over MULTI for the rest of the 36h forecast period. Impacts on forecast bias were mixed, depending on the forecast lead time and forecast threshold. However, MULTI was found to be significantly more skillful than LARGE at early forecast hours for the meso-gamma and meso-beta scales (1–9h), which is a result of a larger and better-sampled ensemble spread at these scales. Despite having a smaller ensemble spread, MULTI was also significantly more skillful than LARGE on the meso-alpha scale during the 20–24h period due to a better spread-skill relation. MULTI’s performance on the meso-alpha scale was slightly worse than LARGE’s performance during the 6–12h period, as LARGE’s ensemble spread surpassed that of MULTI. The advantages of each method for different forecast aspects suggest that the optimal perturbation strategy may require a combination of both the MULTI and LARGE techniques for perturbing initial conditions in a large-domain, convection-allowing ensemble.

Keywords

• ensemble design
• initial condition perturbation
• convection-allowing