Spatial distribution and environmental factors analysis of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in West Java, Indonesia

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Indonesia reappeared after three decades and caused losses to farmers. This study aims to reveal the spatial distribution and correlation of environmental factors in the FMD cases in West Java, Indonesia. The research covered all regencies and cities in West Java. Environmental factors were cattle population (X1), cattle input (X2), cattle output (X3), meat production (X4), milk production (X5), leather production (X6), imported cattle (X7), altitude (X8), vegetation greenness (X9), temperature (X10), and humidity (X11). We used tabular and spatial data from West Java Open Data, BPS, BMKG, Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture, MODIS satellite imagery, and Copernicus DEM. Interactions between variables referred to Global Moran′s and negative binomial regression (NBR) with 95% confidence level. FMD mostly affects cattle in five regencies (Bandung, West Bandung, Garut, Cirebon, and Kuningan). FMD and environmental factors had random spatial patterns except for elevation. At least eight factors (X1, X3, X5, X6, X7, X8, X9, and X11) were significantly interacted with the outbreak. These factors could explain 72% of the outbreak in West Java. FMD is primarily linked to socio-economic factors, making it essential to enhance biosecurity measures and increase vigilance among farmers.

Keywords

• Cattle
• environment
• NBR
• outbreak
• spatial epidemiology
• Plant & Animal Ecology