Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on Food Security of Iran

Abstract

Climate change affects agricultural production and, consequently, agricultural factors such as food security and economic well-being. In this study, by distinguishing between different aspects of climate change, the effects of four climate change assumptions, climate variability, climate change, variability and climate change on food security and economic well-being during the years of 2001-2016 were investigated and by using the cost and production information of three products of food security index in Iran (wheat, rice and potatoes), using the positive mathematical programming (PMP) method was used. The results of this study showed a sharp decrease in farm incomes and a surplus of economic welfare as well as an increase in the price of the product under the fourfold assumptions. In four assumptions examined, the average of total income 43979.4, 127241.9, 157960.1 and 272367.1 million Tomans was reduced, the price of the desired product 332.95, 343.7, 565.18, and 1160.86 one thousand Tomans was increased, and the total of economic welfare surplus decreased 927884.4, 1542416, 2016383 and 2356754 million Tomans, respectively. Reducing the effects of climate change can be achieved by changing the pattern of cultivation, using modern irrigation methods and desertification.

Keywords

• climate variability
• climate change
• food security
• iran