Trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract

The study investigates trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in Bosnia and Herzegovina. A set of daily precipitation time series from four meteorological stations was used for the computation of 13 indices (mostly recommended by the ETCCDI). Trends were calculated for the 1961-2015 periods using RClimDex (1.0) software package. Given the results, a general increase in the extreme precipitation indices is present over the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Upward trends in heavy precipitation indices such as RX1day, RX5day, SDII, R10mm, R20mm, R95p, R95p%, R99p and R99p% indicate changes toward more intense precipitation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, most of the estimated trends are not statistically significant. Registered patterns of change were not spatially and temporally coherent and one of the characteristics was that trend signs were mixed. The analyzed precipitation indices trends are directly linked to changes in the dominant large-scale circulation patterns over Northern Hemisphere. Statistically significant negative correlation with NAO, EAWR and AO is found for majority of extreme precipitation indices, particularly strong during winter. Due to their large impact on natural and socio-economic systems, further research on extreme precipitation events is certainly necessary.

Keywords

• precipitation extremes
• indices
• trend
• climate change
• bosnia and herzegovina