Encounter Circumstances of Asteroid 99942 Apophis with the Catalog of Known Asteroids

Abstract

Asteroid 99942 Apophis will pass near Earth in 2029 April. Expected to miss our planet by a safe margin, that could change if Apophis's path were perturbed by a collision with another asteroid in the interim. Though the statistical chance of such a collision is minuscule, the high risk associated with Apophis motivates us to examine even this very unlikely scenario. In this work, we identify encounters between known asteroids and Apophis up to 2029 April. Here we show that Apophis will encounter the 1300 m diameter asteroid 4544 Xanthus in 2026 December. Their minimum orbit intersection distance is less than 10,000 km, with Apophis passing that closest point just 4 hr before Xanthus. Though a direct collision is ruled out, the encounter is close enough that material accompanying Xanthus (if any) could strike Apophis. We also identify other asteroid encounters that deserve monitoring.

Keywords

• Asteroid dynamics
• Near-Earth objects