Ziyuan Kexue (Jan 2024)
Evolution of global phosphorus products trade pattern and China’s phosphorus import and export security
Abstract
[Objective] As a non-renewable resource, phosphorus (P) plays a crucial role in agricultural development and food security. It is important to examine the characteristics of change of P products trade pattern, which contributes to understanding China’s position in the global P products market as well as reinforcing the P security of China. [Methods] Based on the complex network analysis, this study constructed a global P trade network from 1990 to 2020 and analyzed its globalization level, trade reciprocity, and national connectivity patterns. Furthermore, this study examined the evolution of centrality of major importing and exporting countries (regions). It also developed indicators to evaluate the security for China’s P products trade. [Results] The results indicate the following: (1) Globalization has notably increased the activity within the P products trade network, which is primarily composed of processed phosphate products, including phosphate fertilizer (PF). Trade reciprocity has grown by more than 30%, fostering improved trade relations and enhanced international cooperation. However, the unbalanced trade structure has led many countries (regions) to heavily rely on major exporting countries (regions). Therefore, the stability of export policies is crucial for ensuring global P products supply. (2) In the 1990s, the major trading countries included exporters with high P reserves and production capacity (Morocco, USA), and importers with low P reserves and high demand (Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Thailand, Malaysia, etc.). Since 2006, as the production of phosphate rock (PR) increased and PF demand surged in Eastern European and Asian countries, including China, their influences on P trade network grew. (3) With the development of the P chemical industry, China has transitioned from a net importer of P products to a major exporter. The political risk associated with trading partners and market concentration significantly impacts China’s trade and security. It is crucial to improve the diversity of trading partners and enhance trade relations with politically stable countries (regions). [Conclusion] This article argued that it is necessary to actively promote the sustainable management of P resources and long-term sustainable development of the P industry. It emphasized the necessity of conservation and optimal use of P resources. China should enhance its trade relations with major P resource countries to improve the long-term P security.
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