Assessing the Belt and Road Initiative’s environmental footprint: an impact evaluation analysis of African member countries

Abstract

Abstract This empirical study undertakes a rigorous examination of the environmental sustainability impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on its member countries. Employing a robust difference-in-difference quasi-natural experimental technique, our analysis spans a panel of 69 countries, covering the years from 1990 to 2022. Our primary metric for assessing ecological strain is the total Ecological Footprint consumption (EFP), measured in global hectares, which encapsulates the ecological exhaustion resulting from economic activities. This study not only contributes to the growing body of literature on the BRI’s economic, social, and environmental impacts but also distinguishes itself by providing experimental evidence of its environmental repercussions 10 years post-initiative commencement for member countries and 4 years for African countries in which the majority joined in 2018. Our findings reveal a significant increase in ecological footprint consumption among the BRI member countries after 2014, implying that participation in the BRI has contributed to heightened ecological depletion in these nations. Additionally, our analysis highlights the same impact for African countries, where ecological footprint consumption substantially escalated after joining the BRI in 2018. This pivotal discovery calls for the attention of not only the Chinese government, a driving force behind the BRI, but also all member countries partaking in this international collaboration. It signals a potential ecological deficit and future productivity impairment, urging stakeholders to reconsider and address the environmental ramifications of their endeavors.