Comparison of some Bayesian estimation methods for type-I generalized extreme value distribution with simulation

Abstract

The Weibull distribution is considered one of the Type-I Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, and it plays a crucial role in modeling extreme events in various fields, such as hydrology, finance, and environmental sciences. Bayesian methods play a strong, decisive role in estimating the parameters of the GEV distribution due to their ability to incorporate prior knowledge and handle small sample sizes effectively. In this research, we compare several shrinkage Bayesian estimation methods based on the squared error and the linear exponential loss functions. They were adopted and compared by the Monte Carlo simulation method. The performance of these methods is assessed based on their accuracy and computational efficiency in estimating the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution. To evaluate their performance, we generate simulated datasets with different sample sizes and varying parameter values. A technique for pre-estimation shrinkage is suggested to enhance the precision of estimation. Simulation experiments proved that the Bayesian shrinkage estimator and shrinkage pre-estimation under the squared loss function method are better than the other methods because they give the least mean square error. Overall, our findings highlight the advantages of shrinkage Bayesian estimation methods for the proposed distribution. Researchers and practitioners in fields reliant on extreme value analysis can benefit from these findings when selecting appropriate Bayesian estimation techniques for modeling extreme events accurately and efficiently.

Keywords

• Weibull distribution
• Maximum likelihood estimation
• Bayesian shrinkage estimator
• Shrinkage pre-test
• Squared loss function
• Linear exponential loss function