Origin and variability of statistical dependencies between peak, volume, and duration of rainfall-driven flood events

Abstract

Abstract Floods are among the most common and impactful natural events. The hazard of a flood event depends on its peak (Q), volume (V) and duration (D), which are interconnected to each other. Here, we used a worldwide dataset of daily discharge, two statistics (Kendall’s tau and Spearman’s rho) and a conceptual hydrological rainfall-runoff model as model-dependent realism, to investigate the factors controlling and the origin of the dependence between each couple of flood characteristics, with the focus to rainfall-driven events. From the statistical analysis of worldwide dataset, we found that the catchment area is ineffective in controlling the dependence between Q and V, while the dependencies between Q and D, and V and D show an increasing behavior with the catchment area. From the modeling activity, on the U.S. subdataset, we obtained that the conceptual hydrological model is able to represent the observed dependencies between each couple of variables for rainfall-driven flood events, and for such events, the pairwise dependence of each couple is not causal, is of spurious kind, coming from the “Principle of Common Cause”.