Beyond Effectiveness: Legitimising Predictive Policing in Germany

Abstract

There is no conclusive evidence that predictive policing is effective in reducing crime. Further, our interview partners, the representatives of the scientific-analytic branches of three German state police forces, do not claim that their predictive policing programs directly reduce crime rates. In this article we ask what — in the absence of effectiveness — are the core legitimised narratives employed to underpin the conception and implementation of predictive policing in Germany? Analysing our semi-structured in-depth interviews with representatives from the state criminal investigation departments in Berlin, North Rhine-Westphalia and Bavaria, we find five legitimised narratives. Those narratives can be separated into positive legitimisation narratives (efficiency and transparency within police administration) and negative ones (autonomy/independence, human control, transparency to the public, and soft-pedalling). The former give reasons for actively introducing this new technology, while the latter aim at preempting criticism. Interestingly, security-driven narratives remained absent from the interviews which we discuss at the end of this article.

Keywords

• predictive policing
• effectiveness
• legitimisation narratives
• digitization of police work