MODELLING THE SPREAD OF RABIES IN UKRAINE

Abstract

Due to the concern for animal and human health, efforts to develop mathematical and computational models for predicting the spatial and temporal dynamics of infectious diseases, including rabies, are constantly increasing. Therefore, our goal was to model the dynamics of the spread of rabies by foxes, dogs, and cats on the territory of Vinnytsia Oblast in the period from 2012 to 2018. To study and analyse the dynamic spread of rabies in time and space, an information-analytical technology was developed, which is based on retrospective data from registered cases of rabies. The rabies transmission parameter was determined using official epizootological data from the regional oblast veterinary laboratory and the regional department of the State Service of Ukraine On Food Safety and Consumer Protection. It was found that rabies spread the most among dogs and cats at a distance of up to 50 km in the winter (26.45%), from 50 to 100 km – in the autumn (40.33%), over 100 km – in the summer (49.84%). In general, domestic carnivores were sources of rabies within a radius of 50 km in only 16.98% of cases, and within a radius of 100 km – in 55.95% of cases. Foxes were sources of rabies within a radius of 50 km in only 24.33% of cases and within a radius of 100 km in 58.54% of cases. At the same time, the highest spread of rabies among the foxes at a distance of up to 50 km was observed in the spring (31.01%), from 50 to 100 km – in the winter (43.67%), and over 100 km – in the summer (48.38%). The new data will be useful in planning and carrying out preventive antirabies measures. In the future, it is planned to conduct the modelling in terms of all regions and create forecasts for the spread of rabies on the territory of Ukraine

Keywords

• animal rabies
• rabies distribution modelling
• foxes
• domestic carnivores
• information-analytical technology