Gap between impact-based and impact forecast and warning: Implications for people-centric early warning system (EWS) in India

Abstract

This paper explores the scope and potential of Impact-based Forecast and Warning (IbFW) services for hydro-meteorological hazards in India. It builds upon several global and national initiatives which emphasize that the Early Warning System (EWS) requires to be people-centric and inclusive in order to reduce disaster risk. The objectives of the study are: to understand the current Impact-based Forecast and Warnings framework of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and its usefulness from the people's perspective. Drawing from fieldwork conducted in Krushnaparasad Block, Puri District of India, the paper argues that there is a shifting focus towards meeting the requirements of general public, but there is a long way to go as far as meeting expectations are concerned. It calls for changes such as strengthening risk assessment modeling, clarity over institutional mandates and adoption of flexible governance frameworks to move from an Impact-based paradigm to Impact Forecast and Warning services.

Keywords

• Impact based forecast and warning
• India
• India meteorological department
• Hydro-meteorological hazards
• Multi-hazard EWS