Population measles seroprevalence: Heterogeneity by birth-year cohort

Abstract

Objective: This work sought to estimate population measles seroprevalence and heterogeneity in the antibody concentration distribution that could be explained by the birth-year cohort according to the opportunity of viral and vaccine exposure, applied to data from Medellín, Colombia. Methods: Prevalence of IgG antibodies was analyzed for measles based on a population study with a random sample of 2098 individuals from 6 to 64 years of age. Finite mixture models were used to estimate global seroprevalence and that of three birth-year cohorts (I: born up to 1982; II: 1983–1994; III: born since 1995). Multiple linear regression permitted adjusting the concentration of antibodies by cohort, zone, and sex. Results: Globally, seronegativity was 6.5% (95% CI 4.9– 8.6), seropositivity of 78.4% (95% CI 75.1–81.4), and equivocal of 15.1% (95% CI 12.5–18.1). Two components were found with skewed normal distribution, which reclassified those equivocal as seropositive. Differences were observed by cohort in the geometric mean of antibodies [Cohort I: 1704.6; II: 562.2; III: 802.1 milli-international units per milliliter (mIU/mL] and seronegativity (Cohort I: 4%; II:13.3%; III: 8.9%). Antibody concentration increased by 1.26 mIU/mL in residents in the rural area, while diminishing in individuals from cohort II (by 3.02 mIU/mL) and cohort III (by 2.14 mIU/mL). Conclusion: The younger cohorts (II and III) had a lower antibody concentration (higher seronegativity), indicating the need to monitor periodically seroprevalence and an eventual reestablishment of the transmission in these groups with higher risk of infection.

Keywords

• Measles
• Seroprevalence
• Finite mixture model
• Colombia