Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki (Sep 2014)
ANALYSIS OF FACTORS OF PRIMARY NICKEL PRICES DYNAMICS
Abstract
The influence of a group of factors - internal and external for the primary nickel market and related to the real and fictitious economy - on the price of the metal is scrutinized in the article. The dependence between the prices dynamics of the basic non-ferrous metals was analyzed. Fluctuations in the balance of nickel consumption and production, changes in production costs of metals started to play a less important role; while other factors, which most of all characterize the speculative component of the price, came to the fore. From the mid 2000’s it is global macroeconomic factors, which characterize the fictitious economy and changes connected with bidding on the London Metal Exchange, that impact the prices of nonferrous metals. Different modeling approaches for analyzing dynamics of the primary indexes are examined in the article. The results of the modeling of the volumes of the world production and the nickel market (consumption and import) in the USA are presented.
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