The risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant emergence in low and middle-income countries (LMICs)

Kaiming Bi; Jose Luis Herrera-Diestra; Yuan Bai; Zhanwei Du; Lin Wang; Graham Gibson; Maureen Johnson-Leon; Spencer J. Fox; Lauren Ancel Meyers

Epidemics (Mar 2023)

The risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant emergence in low and middle-income countries (LMICs)

Kaiming Bi,
Jose Luis Herrera-Diestra,
Yuan Bai,
Zhanwei Du,
Lin Wang,
Graham Gibson,
Maureen Johnson-Leon,
Spencer J. Fox,
Lauren Ancel Meyers

Affiliations

Kaiming Bi: The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA; Corresponding author.
Jose Luis Herrera-Diestra: The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA
Yuan Bai: WHO Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China; Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
Zhanwei Du: WHO Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China; Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
Lin Wang: University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EH, UK
Graham Gibson: The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA
Maureen Johnson-Leon: The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA
Spencer J. Fox: The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA
Lauren Ancel Meyers: The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA; Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA; Corresponding author at: The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA.

Journal volume & issue: Vol. 42
p. 100660

Abstract

Read online

We estimated the probability of undetected emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in 25 low and middle-income countries (LMICs) prior to December 5, 2021. In nine countries, the risk exceeds 50 %; in Turkey, Pakistan and the Philippines, it exceeds 99 %. Risks are generally lower in the Americas than Europe or Asia.

Published in Epidemics

ISSN: 1755-4365 (Print); 1878-0067 (Online)
Publisher: Elsevier
Country of publisher: Netherlands
LCC subjects: Medicine: Internal medicine: Infectious and parasitic diseases
Website: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/epidemics/

About the journal

Abstract

Keywords