Sustainable dynamic planning and policy implementation for water, energy and food resources

Abstract

The current investigation focuses on analyzing dynamic approaches to sustainable water resource management policies, considering the interconnectedness of water, food and energy resources. This analysis takes into consideration changes in demand resulting from population growth and economic development over a twenty-year timeframe, employing a systems dynamics methodology. Initially, the model was developed and simulated using data from the case province as a macro-scale representation of the water-food-energy resource framework, while also factoring in the continuation of current conditions. Through sensitivity analysis utilizing the Monte Carlo model, the study addresses the formulation of sustainable water resource policies across four main categories: water demand management, water supply management, food resource management, and energy resource demand management. Additionally, it explores the integration of policies within an optimal framework. The simulation of proposed solutions revealed that a combination of water demand management and food resource management yielded the most promising outcome. Specifically, the recommended solution entails enhancing water irrigation efficiency by 17 % through the expansion of pressurized irrigation network coverage, adjusting cropping patterns by 12 %, reducing agricultural product losses by 7 % via improved food supply management, minimizing food demand by 7 % due to reduced food consumption losses, and achieving an annual 8 % increase in crop performance. These selected policies form the foundation for sustainable water resource management strategies.

Keywords

• Sustainable resource policy
• Dynamic system modeling
• Water resource security
• Energy-food-water interdependence