Short-Term Intensive Rainfall Forecasting Model Based on a Hierarchical Dynamic Graph Network

Abstract

Accurate short-term forecasting of intensive rainfall has high practical value but remains difficult to achieve. Based on deep learning and spatial–temporal sequence predictions, this paper proposes a hierarchical dynamic graph network. To fully model the correlations among data, the model uses a dynamically constructed graph convolution operator to model the spatial correlation, a recurrent structure to model the time correlation, and a hierarchical architecture built with graph pooling to extract and fuse multi-level feature spaces. Experiments on two datasets, based on the measured cumulative rainfall data at a ground station in Fujian Province, China, and the corresponding numerical weather grid product, show that this method can model various correlations among data more effectively than the baseline methods, achieving further improvements owing to reversed sequence enhancement and low-rainfall sequence removal.

Keywords

• short-term intensive rainfall forecast
• spatial–temporal sequence prediction
• hierarchical dynamic graph network
• graph convolutional network
• numerical weather prediction