A Sustainable Development Assessment to 2050 of the Transport Sector in Mexico

Abstract

The growth and variations within the vehicle park of the transport sector in Mexico have not been studied enough. This represents a problem for developing public policies and fulfilling Mexico's commitments to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) set by the United Nations in 2015. One of the targets set is reducing CO2 emissions by 45% for the period 2010-2030 and reaching zero percent of emissions by 2050. By 2018, Mexico had a final energy consumption of 5,396.45 PJ. In the same year, the transport sector was responsible for 46.5% of the energetic consumption, with the area of self-transport being the category of highest energy demand. With respect to CO2 emissions, the transport sector was responsible for 31% of the total emission contribution for 2017. The subsector with the highest CO2 emission was self-transport, with 93% of the total emitted. The objective of this research is to evaluate the behavior of the transport sector in Mexico through an energy model implemented by the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software. The data required to develop the base scenario were taken from the database of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography and from the information presented on the virtual portals of the National Commission for the Efficient Use of Energy. Both information sources are managed by the federal government of Mexico and represent the official data of the vehicle park and energy consumption of the country. The items selected to model the self-transport sector were passenger and cargo. The fuels chosen were gasoline and diesel, as they are the most demanded energy sources within the sector. The results show that the transport sector could help the 2030 SDG compliance on a limited basis, mainly due to high dependence on fossil fuel consumption. The application of energy policies in the transport sector is required to have sustainable development by 2050.