Investigation the causal relation the economic growth with consumption and imports of fine papers (Writing and printing & Newsprint paper) in Iran

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we attempted to investigate the relationship between consumption, demand for imports of fine paper and economic growth using annual time series data in the period of 1984 to 2010. Since the time series are non-stationary (Unit root) and can lead to spurious regression, the stationary of the variables are investigated in its logarithmic form using Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF) in two type of intercept without trend and intercept with trend. After applying the unit root test, in order to understand the interaction between economic growth and consumption and imports of fine papers and direction the causal relation, the vector auto regressive (VAR) approach including two models and the causality test of granger are used.The results indicate that GDP growth will increase the consumption of writing and printing papers but this relation is one-sided. On the other hand, there is no causality between changes in GDP and imports of printing and writing paper, and vice versa. Also, there is the one-side causality between GDP and consumption of newsprint. In the case ofThe Granger causality between economic growth and imports of newsprint, due to reject the null hypothesis, there was no relationship found, and vice versa

Keywords

• Fine papers
• import
• consumption
• Granger causality
• Stationary