A Comparative Analysis of the Prediction of Gas Condensate Dew Point Pressure Using Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms

Abstract

Dew point pressure (DPP) emerges as a pivotal factor crucial for forecasting reservoir dynamics regarding condensate-to-gas ratio and addressing production/completion hurdles, alongside calibrating EOS models for integrated simulation. However, DPP presents challenges in terms of predictability. Acknowledging these complexities, we introduce a state-of-the-art approach for DPP estimation utilizing advanced machine learning (ML) techniques. Our methodology is juxtaposed against published empirical correlation-based methods on two datasets with limited sizes and diverse inputs. With superior performance over correlation-based estimators, our ML approach demonstrates adaptability and resilience even with restricted training datasets, spanning various fluid classifications. We acquired condensate PVT data from publicly available sources and GeoMark RFDBASE, encompassing dew point pressure (the target variable), as well as compositional data (mole percentages of each component), temperature, molecular weight (MW), and specific gravity (SG) of heptane plus, which served as input variables. Before initiating the study, thorough assessments of measurement quality and results using statistical methods were conducted leveraging domain expertise. Subsequently, advanced ML techniques were employed to train predictive models with cross-validation to mitigate overfitting to the limited datasets. Our models were juxtaposed against the foremost published DDP estimators utilizing empirical correlation-based methods, with correlation-based estimators also trained on the underlying datasets for equitable comparison. To improve outcomes, pseudo-critical properties and artificial proxy features were utilized, leveraging generalized input data.

Keywords

• phase-equlibria
• condensates
• PVT
• wet gas
• machine learning
• XGBoost