BMC Public Health (Jul 2024)

Global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035

  • Ju-Li Lin,
  • Jian-Xian Lin,
  • Guang-Tan Lin,
  • Chang-Ming Huang,
  • Chao-Hui Zheng,
  • Jian-Wei Xie,
  • Jia-bin Wang,
  • Jun Lu,
  • Qi-Yue Chen,
  • Ping Li

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-19104-6
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 24, no. 1
pp. 1 – 13

Abstract

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Abstract Objective To study the historical global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035. Methods Incidence data were retrieved from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) volumes I-XI, and mortality data were obtained from the latest update of the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database. We used join-point regression analysis to examine historical incidence and mortality trends and used the package NORDPRED in R to predict the number of deaths and mortality rates by 2035 by country and sex. Results More than 1,089,000 new cases of gastric cancer and 769,000 related deaths were reported in 2020. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in the incidence of gastric cancer from 2003 to 2012 among the male population, South Korea, Japan, Malta, Canada, Cyprus, and Switzerland showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05); among the female population, Canada [AAPC, 1.2; (95%Cl, 0.5–2), P 0.05). AAPC in the mortality of gastric cancer from 2006 to 2015 among the male population, Thailand [3.5 (95%cl, 1.6–5.4), P 0.05); among the male population aged 20–44, Thailand [AAPC, 3.4; (95%cl, 1.3–5.4), P 0.05). It is predicted that the mortality rate in Slovenia and France’s female population will show an increasing trend by 2035. It is predicted that the absolute number of deaths in the Israeli male population and in Chile, France, and Canada female population will increase by 2035. Conclusion In the past decade, the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer have shown a decreasing trend; however, there are still some countries showing an increasing trend, especially among populations younger than 45 years. Although mortality in most countries is predicted to decline by 2035, the absolute number of deaths due to gastric cancer may further increase due to population growth.

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