Status and forecast of leprosy in the still endemic province of Formosa in northern Argentina.

Abstract

BackgroundThe province of Formosa, Argentina, is endemic for leprosy. In the present paper, we assessed the trend (T, 2002-2016 time series) and the forecast for 2022 of new case detection rate (NCDR) and determined the spatial distribution of new cases detected (NCD) of leprosy.Methodology/principal findingsThis is a descriptive observational study of 713 NCD of leprosy from provincial medical records between January 2002 and December 2016. The whole dataset from the provincial medical record was used to independently estimate the NCDR trends of the general population, age groups, sexes and Departments. This same database was used to estimate the NCDR forecast of the general population for 2022, applying a dynamic linear model with a local linear trend, using the MCMC algorithm. The NCDR was higher in men (p65:-61, p0.05), which showed no trend. Forecasts predicted that leprosy will not be eliminated by 2022 (3.64, 95%CI: [1.22, 10.25]).Conclusions/significanceOur results highlight the status of leprosy in Formosa and provide information to the provincial public health authorities on high-risk populations, stressing the importance of timely detection of new cases for further elimination of the disease in the province.