Model Thermohaline Trends in the Mediterranean Sea during the Last Years: A Change with Respect to the Last Decades?

Abstract

Temperature and salinity outputs from ECCO (years 93–09) and GLORYS (years 03–09) models have been used to compute the thermohaline and steric sea level trends in the surface (0–150 m), intermediate (150 m–600 m), and deep (600 m–bottom) layers of the Mediterranean Sea. Some changes with respect to the second half of the 20th century have been observed: the cooling of the upper waters of the entire eastern basin since 1950 seems to have vanished; the warming of WMDW historically reported for the second half of the last century could have reversed, although there is no agreement between both models at this point (trends of different sign are predicted); the salinification of WMDW reported for the previous decades is not observed in the south-westernmost area in the period 93–09, and a clear change from positive to negative in the steric sea level trend with respect to the period 93–05 is detected due to the sharp decreasing steric sea level of years 02–06.