An Efficient Task Implementation Modeling Framework with Multi-Stage Feature Selection and AutoML: A Case Study in Forest Fire Risk Prediction

Abstract

As data science advances, automated machine learning (AutoML) gains attention for lowering barriers, saving time, and enhancing efficiency. However, with increasing data dimensionality, AutoML struggles with large-scale feature sets. Effective feature selection is crucial for efficient AutoML in multi-task applications. This study proposes an efficient modeling framework combining a multi-stage feature selection (MSFS) algorithm and AutoSklearn, a robust and efficient AutoML framework, to address high-dimensional data challenges. The MSFS algorithm includes three stages: mutual information gain (MIG), recursive feature elimination with cross-validation (RFECV), and a voting aggregation mechanism, ensuring comprehensive consideration of feature correlation, importance, and stability. Based on multi-source and time series remote sensing data, this study pioneers the application of AutoSklearn for forest fire risk prediction. Using this case study, we compare MSFS with five other feature selection (FS) algorithms, including three single FS algorithms and two hybrid FS algorithms. Results show that MSFS selects half of the original features (12/24), effectively handling collinearity (eliminating 11 out of 13 collinear feature groups) and increasing AutoSklearn’s success rate by 15%, outperforming two FS algorithms with the same number of features by 7% and 5%. Among the six FS algorithms and non-FS, MSFS demonstrates the highest prediction performance and stability with minimal variance (0.09%) across five evaluation metrics. MSFS efficiently filters redundant features, enhancing AutoSklearn’s operational efficiency and generalization ability in high-dimensional tasks. The MSFS–AutoSklearn framework significantly improves AutoML’s production efficiency and prediction accuracy, facilitating the efficient implementation of various real-world tasks and the wider application of AutoML.

Keywords

• feature selection
• automated machine learning
• efficient task implementation
• forest fire risk prediction