Online Car-Hailing System Performance Analysis Based on Bayesian Network

Abstract

The concept of the sharing economy has attracted wide attention due to its huge impact on transforming traditional industries. Online car-hailing, combining the sharing economy and ICT technologies, shapes a new landscape, which can greatly shorten the traveler's waiting time and reduce the empty-run rate of cars (such as Uber and DiDi). However, a few comprehensive studies have been conducted on the sustainable development of online car-hailing considering both the user experience and the operational cost. To address this issue, this paper systematically studies the influencing factors, their relations, and their impacts on online car-hailing in an empirical way. First, an index system in four key aspects, namely service, price, safety, and traveling time, is established to evaluate the user experience. Second, the Bayesian network theory is employed to model the complexity of each factor and the extent of its influence on the online car-hailing system with expert scores. The two most important influence paths affecting the passengers' choices of online car-hailing are determined. Third, we further construct an investment allocation model with the aim of minimizing the economic cost of the online car-hailing system while maintaining the system performance, considering the limiting factors, such as the complexity and cost. Finally, we perform a simulation experiment, which generates some practical suggestions for improving the online car-hailing system.

Keywords

• Online services
• Bayesian methods
• simulation
• computational complexity