Predicting Future Flood Risks in the Face of Climate Change: A Frequency Analysis Perspective

Abstract

The frequency analysis of maximum flows represents a direct method to predict future flood risks in the face of climate change. Thus, the correct use of the tools (probability distributions and methods of estimating their parameters) necessary to carry out such analyzes is required to avoid possible negative consequences. This article presents four probability distributions from the generalized Beta families, using the L- and LH-moments method as parameter estimation. New elements are presented regarding the applicability of Dagum, Paralogistic, Inverse Paralogistic and the four-parameter Burr distributions in the flood frequency analysis. The article represents the continuation of the research carried out in the Faculty of Hydrotechnics, being part of larger and more complex research with the aim of developing a normative regarding flood frequency analysis using these methods. According to the results obtained, among the four analyzed distributions, the Burr distribution was found to be the best fit model because the theoretical values of the statistical indicators calibrated the corresponding values of the observed data. Considering the existence of more rigorous selection criteria, it is recommended to use these methods in the frequency analysis.

Keywords

• flood
• risks
• frequency analysis
• linear moments
• statistical distributions