Biofuel Policy-Making Based on Outdated Modelling? The Cost of Road Transport Decarbonisation in EU

Abstract

The cost of transport decarbonisation matters, yet little information is available. Policies need to reflect the costs to society. The European Union relies on the PRIMES model, a private model with limited transparency. Our research revealed its methodological deficiencies. Based on a revised PRIMES model, modelling was carried out and compared with an official impact assessment prepared for a key EU policy. Our modelling results indicate that crop-based bioethanol has negative abatement costs, biodiesel and biomethane have costs below 100 EUR/tCO2eq, electromobility falls in the range of 100–150 EUR/tCO2eq, cellulosic ethanol has costs above 200 EUR/tCO2eq, while advanced biodiesel has costs above 300 EUR/tCO2eq. Our results on carbon abatement costs suggest that policy-making has often been based on outdated modelling in the EU. With regard to transport decarbonisation policies, a large number of recent energy and climate proposals by the European Commission seem to have been misguided.

Keywords

• cost of decarbonisation
• ethanol
• biodiesel
• biofuel
• biomethane
• electromobility