Medium Term Scenario Forecast Of The Rural Population In Russia

Abstract

The main objective of the study was to develop a number and structure forecast of the rural population in Russia (2020-2040), based on the scenario approach. Predictive modeling of alternative scenarios of demographic development of the village was conducted in accordance with the phases of the national priorities and strategic objectives in the field of population development. Seven scenarios of the demographic development of the Russian village until 2040 were developed, simulating the change of parameters of fertility, a death rate, and migration, determining population dynamics and structure of the rural population. According to the received information, the rural population of the Russian Federation could be decreased from 37.1 million people (2014) to 29, 3-34, 7 million people (2040). In this case, all the scenarios show decrease in people of the working age and women of childbearing age. It was noted that the reduction of the working-age rural population limits opportunities for the rural areas economic development, and the measures of the active population policies have a short-term effect. The study shows that an additional set of measures of the active population policy, considering the inertia of the processes of the population reproduction, is advised to be implemented before 2015

Keywords

• Russia
• rural population
• forecast
• size and structure
• alternative scenarios