FINLAND AND SWEDEN ON THE THRESHOLD OF NATO’S OPEN DOOR

Abstract

The article examines the NATO «open door» policy in connection with the aggravated security dilemma and the strategic choice of Finland and Sweden. The socio-political moods in both countries that changed with start of the Russian special forces in Ukraine – towards choosing to join NATO and, accordingly, abandoning the traditional policy of non-alignment, became one of the key disturbing trends within the European security system and architecture. NATO’s interest in Finland and Sweden making a decision to join the alliance puts them in a situation of tough choice, which rather cannot be postponed, but carries really high challenges and risks both for these countries and for the development of the military-political situation in Europe, including the risks of Russia – NATO escalation. The article shows that the problem of the status of Finland and Sweden in relations with NATO is not solely a consequence of the current escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. Scenarios for their entry into the alliance have been considered since at least the middle of the last decade, in connection with fundamental changes in Europe as a result of the Ukrainian crisis of 2014. Now both states must take into account, on the one hand, the «new norm» in Europe to which the alliance is appealing, as well as the risks of being left without a NATO umbrella in the event of a confrontational developments and crises, and on the other hand, other political and military risks owing to potential joining NATO option, which could undermine sovereignty and security of both.

Keywords

• nato
• finland
• sweden
• ukraine
• russia
• neutrality
• enhanced opportunities partnership
• deterrence