Influence of running time and age on the flow of vehicle failures

Abstract

The service life of cars is a key indicator for planning the replacement of outdated equipment with a new one. It is also taken into account during the technical re-equipment of the industry, the development of the material and technical base and has a direct impact on the final results of the enterprise. It is shown that limiting the maximum age and service life of cars is one of the ways to increase their reliability, safety and efficiency. The purpose of the article is to develop a methodology for determining the rational service life of cars, providing a given level of reliability of transport and technological services. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the establishment of patterns and the development of mathematical models of the influence of age and operating time on the parameter of the failure rate of cars. The methodological basis of the work was the systematization of research works carried out earlier on this topic, regulatory documents, scientific and technical literature, as well as methods of mathematical statistics, elements of a systematic approach, methods of economic analysis and expert assessments. Methods of determining rational service life of cars are considered. It is established that each of the known methods has a limited scope of use. So, the schedule built for the implementation of the technical and economic method does not always have a minimum. It is proposed to set the maximum operating time according to the admissible probability of failure. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account not only the mileage since the entry into operation, as it is accepted in most known methods, but also car operation intensity. It is shown that in the general case, there is no statistically significant linear correlation between car age and mileage since the entry into operation. One-factor and two-factor models of the regularities of the influence of these indicators on car failure intensity were developed. On the basis of statistical data on failures of cars of different ages and at different mileages since the entry into operation, the adequacy of the proposed models was checked and the numerical values of their parameters were established. Based on the obtained dependencies, a method for determining the age limit of cars, taking into account their operation intensity, was developed. The effect of it is formed due to a more accurate determination of the service life of cars, which affects the reduction of the number of failures, losses from downtime in current repairs and downtime of the main production of the enterprises under discussion. Further research in this area should be directed to the development of a methodology for adjusting the service life of cars, taking into account their operating conditions.

Keywords

• automobile transport
• failure rate
• service life of cars
• operating time