Changes in Aporia crataegi’s potential habitats in accordance with climate changes in the northeast Asia

Abstract

This study was conducted in an effort to provide important clues pertaining to the conservation and restoration of Aporia crataegi by identifying the spatial distribution characteristics of the current habitats, prospective habitats, and future habitats of A. crataegi in accordance with climate changes. To determine the distribution of A. crataegi, data from a total of 36 collecting points throughout South Korea, North Korea, China, Japan, Mongolia, and Russia are used. The spatial distributions of the data were examined through MaxEnt modeling. The distribution probability rates exceeded 75% at 18 locations among the 36 species occurrence locations, with Gangwon province showing the highest distribution probability in South Korea. The precision of the MaxEnt model was remarkably high, with an AUC value of 0.982. The variables that affect the potential distribution of A. crataegi by more than 10% are the degree of temperature seasonality, the amount of precipitation in the warmest quarter, the annual mean temperature, and the amount of precipitation in the driest month, in that order of importance. It was found that the future potential distribution area of A. crataegi continuously moves northward over time up to 2070s. In addition, the area of the potential distribution showing a habitable probability rate that exceeds 75% in northeast Asia was 28,492 km2, where the area of potential distribution in the north part of Korean peninsula was 20.404 km2 in size. Thus, it is anticipated that the most important future habitats of A. crataegi in the northeast Asia will be North and South Hamgyeong provinces and Ryanggang province near Mt. Baekdoosan in the northern area of the Korean peninsula.

Keywords

• Aporia crataegi
• climate change
• MaxEnt
• endangered species