A Weighted <i>k</i>-Nearest-Neighbors-Based Spatial Framework of Flood Inundation Risk for Coastal Tourism—A Case Study in Zhejiang, China

Abstract

Flood inundation causes socioeconomic losses for coastal tourism under climate extremes, progressively attracting global attention. Predicting, mapping, and evaluating the flood inundation risk (FIR) is important for coastal tourism. This study developed a spatial tourism-aimed framework by integrating a Weighted k Nearest Neighbors (WkNN) algorithm, geographic information systems, and environmental indexes, such as precipitation and soil. These model inputs were standardized and weighted using inverse distance calculation and integrated into WkNN to infer the regional probability and distribution of the FIR. Zhejiang province, China, was selected as a case study. The evaluation results were mapped to denote the likelihood of an FIR, which was then validated by the historical Maximum Inundation Extent (MIE) extracted from the World Environment Situation Room. The results indicated that 80.59% of the WkNN results reasonably confirmed the MIE. Among the matched areas, 80.14%, 90.13%, 65.50%, and 84.14% of the predicted categories using WkNN perfectly coincided with MIE at high, medium, low, and very low risks, respectively. For the entire study area, approximately 2.85%, 64.83%, 10.8%, and 21.51% are covered by a high, medium, low, and very low risk of flood inundation. Precipitation and elevation negatively contribute to a high-medium risk. Drainage systems positively alleviate the regional stress of the FIR. The results of the evaluation illustrate that in most inland areas, some tourism facilities are located in high-medium areas of the FIR. However, most tourism facilities in coastal cities are at low or very low risk, especially from Hangzhou-centered northern coastal areas to southern Wenzhou areas. The results can help policymakers make appropriate strategies to protect coastal tourism from flood inundation. Moreover, the evaluation accuracy of WkNN is higher than that of kNN in FIR. The WkNN-based framework provides a reasonable method to yield reliable results for assessing FIR. The framework can also be extended to other risk-related research under climate change.

Keywords

• climate change
• sensitivity analysis
• evaluation accuracy
• hazard
• year return period
• overall accuracy