A Probabilistic Estimation of PV Capacity in Distribution Networks From Aggregated Net-Load Data

Abstract

Globally, solar photovoltaic (PV) installations on distribution LV feeders have increased significantly. The increased penetration leads to several technical problems on existing networks and impacts utilities’ business models as energy sales drop. For proactive management of these challenges, utilities need to continually monitor the capacity of installed PV. To this end, some utilities typically require PV installations to be registered and sometimes use GIS mapping to approximate the installed PV capacity. However, these GIS PV capacity estimations methods are unreliable. Therefore, to obtain reliable PV estimates at a distribution level, comprehensive modeling is required to accurately represent the generation output and the distribution load. This paper proposes a novel probabilistic PV estimation method that uses time-series historical sets of load and irradiance data to estimate the embedded PV capacity while considering the uncertainty in solar irradiance and the measured net load. Uncertainty characterization is implemented using empirical probability density functions, and simulation is performed stochastically using Monte-Carlo simulation methods. A novel quantile analysis approach is developed and used in the computation of the final capacity of PV. The proposed methodology is tested using measured load data from Ausgrid customers, Australia, and achieves reasonable accuracy (between 86% and 90% for the tested cases) and a 10% mean absolute percentage error. This approach is robust to the effects of input uncertainty and can be used by distribution utilities to estimate and monitor PV capacity installed on the distribution networks without incurring extra advanced metering investment costs.

Keywords

• Disaggregation
• Monte-Carlo simulation
• photovoltaic systems
• probability density function
• quantile analysis