Examining the Most Important Factors Affecting the Egyptian Family’s Choice of the Ideal Number of Children in the Light of the 2015 Demographic and Health Survey

Abstract

Purpose – This study aimed to identify the most important factors affecting the desire of Egyptian families to have ≤ 2 Child as a targeted situation in line with the national and global trends for replacement rates of 2.1 children for each family, and thus can provide various information and results supporting the decision-makers and planners at the demographic and development level in Egypt. Taking in the account that this paper also supports shaping the future populations strategies in preparation for supporting sustainable development opportunities to improve the demographic situation about the concept of ideal number of children in Egypt, as well as providing the suitable recommendations and proposals as points and areas for improvement of the current situation affecting access to achieving the Egyptian desires about targeting two children or less for each family. This study has pursued to support the officials and planners in various areas of comprehensive development, especially in light of what Egypt is facing from the aggravation of the population issue in relevance to the high population growth, as the number of Egypt’s population rose from 72.8 million according to the 2006 census, then to 94.8 million in the 2017 census, and to 101.5 million population on 1 January 2021, an increase of 7.1 million people over the last census data, (51.5% males, 48.5% females), and the gender ratio was 106.1 males for every 100 females. So, this represented a direct threat to economic development that Egypt recently started to achieve a qualitative leap in the economy. The average ideal number of children amounted for 3.4 children per woman and slightly differ by family's residence, whereas it was generally higher for Upper Egypt governorates, as well as the urban governorates have somewhat gap to have one child compared to the desire of having two children that it was noticeable in Alexandria governorate in which there was 1.7 wanted births per woman compared to 2.7 mean ideal numbers of children. Thence, the study will aim to present which factors affecting the Egyptian family’s choice the ideal number of children (two children per women according to the national objective of Egypt) to become Future-Proof towards supporting the SDGs in Egypt. Design/methodology/ approach – The study was adopted a descriptive and analytical approaches which focused on the data collected by the Egyptian Demographic Health Survey (EDHS) survey in 2015. This sample used by the current study is considered an indirect source that is nationally representing the Egyptian households in which were selected using a multistage sampling technique in terms of this survey consisted of 16671 family in which were interviewed randomly. To achieve the planned objectives of this study, the sample of the 2015 EDHS survey of the Egyptian families was divided into two main groups according to the dependent variable (the desire of the family for the ideal number of children) where the first group represents the desire of Egyptian families to have only two children or less, while the second group represents the desire of Egyptian families to have more than two children. Up-on this direction, the first group represents the national strategic objective of Egypt population development. The variables were selected upon supporting the study's purpose and the Chi-square-test (χ2), t-test for independent samples and logistic regression analysis were used. The p-value (Sig.) of the statistical tests applied by this study was considered significant when p ≤0.05. Additionally, the data selected was analyzed using SPSS ver. (26) software. Findings – The results has revealed a set of critical factors which were included in proposed statistical model representing both of making decisions for using money or health care within the family, marital status, ideal marriage age for a girl, and the no. of male children, it has shown that the these factors combined affecting significantly the Egyptian families choices about the ideal number of children in terms of are considered the most important factors determining the chances of the family towards having ≤ 2 Child. It recommended to continue to employ the alternative means and solutions within the awareness programs to control these factors, and this in turn to motivate Egyptian families to control population growth rate at two child per family at the level accepted internationally. Originality/value – This study confirms that the importance of continuing to further spread public awareness among all members of Egyptian families, in order to reach the ideal target number of two children or less as a strategic goal for the components of the national population policy in Egypt, in addition to implementing strategic initiatives, programs and projects that promote the achievement of Egypt’s forward-looking vision in becoming Future-Proof by 2030,and alongside with the progress towards the human and sustainable development goals in Egypt by 2030 for the chances of next Egyptians generations.

Keywords

• ideal number of children
• egyptian family
• arab region (mena)